Horse Racing / Wayne Bailey / 13 November 2008 / Leave a comment

He may have disappointed at Cheltenham, but an in-form Sizing Europe can take on short-priced favourite Jered writes Wayne Bailey...

This Sunday, a small field of six goes to post for the Maplewood Developments Hurdle (The Morgiana) at Punchestown, and it's starting to look like a match between Noel Meade's Irish Champion Novice Jered, and Henry De Bromhead's Cheltenham let-down, Sizing Europe.

The former is something special, there's no doubt about that, but at odds of around [2.1] he's simply too short for me. The latter meanwhile, was looking like the next Irish hurdling superstar, until Cheltenham that is. And his backers for Sunday haven't shown up in big numbers as yet.

I can understand why punters are afraid to put their hard earned down on a Champion Hurdle disappointment this weekend. Indeed, I was one of many that got excited that day when two fences out, he started breathing down the necks of Osana and Katchit, and was certain that he was about to make a serious challenge. But it was not to be, and he was all but pulled up by the end of the race. But are punters being too harsh judging him on that one performance only?

Perhaps. But in fairness, you could also say the same thing about those of us who backed him at Cheltenham that day - that is; we were judging him mainly on one run; his Leopardstown AIG race where he simply destroyed the field.

But let's be clear about this - the reason he disappointed at Cheltenham was not because he couldn't handle the opposition. It was discovered afterwards, that he had strained his sacroiliac joint (at the base of the spine) and simply went limp.

To De Bromhead's credit, he's been incredibly patient with this animal, and there were a number of 'easy' races he could have targeted since Cheltenham. But he resisted and waited until his six-year-old came back to full health.

That said, those who follow statistics will know that nine of the past ten Morgiana winners had ran in the past two months, so it's not generally a race for seasonal debuts. As a stats fan, I'm also acutely aware that all previous ten winners of this race finished in the top four last time out. But this, I believe, is one of those occasions where following the trends blindly ignores the reality of what happened at Cheltenham and they can be overlooked this once.

I've watched his Leopardstown AIG race over and over, a race which is simply awesome, and up until the second last fence at Cheltenham, he looked set to continue his winning ways. Had the injury not happened, he'd probably be [1.5] or less on Sunday. But it did happen, and we must decide whether it was a one-off that can be forgiven, or perhaps that race exposed some serious flaws. I'm in the former camp.

Jered, of course, cannot be written off very easily. In fact, he's hardly put a foot wrong all year, and has already made short work of Cork All Star, Fiveforthree, Made In Taipan and Balitman to name just a few. He's an exciting prospect and has already been backed in to [10.5] for the Champion Hurdle, from a high of [95.0]. If it turns out to be a battle between these two near the finish and he manages to win - he'll be a serious contender on my Cheltenham ante-post list.

Of the rest, we've the old-timer Hardy Eustace, who looked all of his 11 years in the World Hurdle. In fairness to Hardy though, he is the only one out of this lot who is actually proven on heavy ground, and traditionally he's always been a good battler. However, a double figure price is realistic.

If there's going to be a dark horse in the race, it may well turn out to be Won In The Dark. His win in the Champion Four-Year-Old at Punchestown was very promising, and he shook off the cobwebs with a reasonable run on the flat at Leopardstown a couple of weeks ago.

As one of the many punters expected to turn up at Punchestown this Sunday however, I'm hoping for a match between the two market leaders. And it's a match where the layers, I believe, have called it wrong.

Advice: Back Sizing Europe at [2.7] or higher.

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